Journal

Essays from the Foundation

On the evidence, the forecasts and what comes next. Every figure links back to where it came from.

1. 17 October 2026Self-improvement17 October 2026AI is building AIFor the first time, a frontier lab has measured how much of its own research its AI does. As of August 2026 the answer is a quarter, up from under one per cent in February.3 min read
2. 17 October 2026Measurement17 October 2026Six months of ARC-AGI-3In March the best AI scored half a per cent on a test people solve completely. In September a new model scored 62.7%, and 99.9% with a better harness.2 min read
3. 17 October 2026Robotics17 October 2026Humanoids step out of the cageSafety rules for factory robots assume machines that stand behind a fence. South Korea has cleared twenty walking humanoids to work alongside people, and will use what it learns to rewrite the rules.2 min read
4. 29 September 2026Measurement29 September 2026The length of a taskThe clearest single measure of AI progress is how long a job a machine can finish on its own. It used to double every seven months. Now it doubles every four.3 min read
5. 29 September 2026Robotics29 September 2026Minds first, then machinesIntelligence changes what we know. Intelligence with a body changes what we have. Why robotics is the second half of the singularity, and why it may move faster than the first.2 min read
6. 29 September 2026Forecasts29 September 2026The dates keep movingWhat forecasters, researchers and one of the best-known timelines say about when general AI arrives, why the answers keep changing, and why we keep a public record of our own.2 min read