What this site is built on

Companies and executives

Primary essays and corporate positions, read in full.

• The Gentle Singularity ↗

  Sam Altman

  “We are past the event horizon; the takeoff has started.”

• Reflections ↗

  Sam Altman

• Planning for AGI and beyond ↗

  OpenAI, Feb 2023

• Governance of superintelligence ↗

  OpenAI

• Machines of Loving Grace ↗

  Dario Amodei

  Powerful AI as “a country of geniuses in a datacenter”.

• The Adolescence of Technology ↗

  Dario Amodei

• The Urgency of Interpretability ↗

  Dario Amodei

• Core Views on AI Safety ↗

  Anthropic

• Taking a responsible path to AGI ↗

  Google DeepMind

• Towards Humanist Superintelligence ↗

  Mustafa Suleyman, Microsoft AI

• “We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research” ↗

  Ilya Sutskever, interviewed by Dwarkesh Patel

Safety frameworks

The labs' own commitment documents, with version history tracked.

• Responsible Scaling Policy v3.4 ↗

  Anthropic · effective 8 July 2026

  Revised five times during 2026: v3.0 → v3.1 → v3.2 → v3.3 → v3.4.

• Frontier Safety Framework v3.1 ↗

  Google DeepMind · 17 April 2026

  Adds Tracked Capability Levels and protocols for models that could accelerate AI R&D to destabilising levels.

• Preparedness Framework v2 ↗

  OpenAI · 15 April 2025

Key papers

Read in full. These carry most of the analytical weight on this site.

• AI Researchers' Perspectives on Automating AI R&D and Intelligence Explosions ↗

  Field, Douglas & Krueger

  25 semi-structured interviews. The source of the epistemic-schism finding.

• The Dynamics of Intelligence Explosions ↗

  Toby Ord

  Generation time as the pivotal parameter; the critique of METR time horizons.

• Will Compute Bottlenecks Prevent an Intelligence Explosion? ↗

  Whitfill (MIT) & Wu (Yale)

  σ = 2.583 versus σ = −0.103.

• The ARC of Progress towards AGI: A Living Survey ↗

  Vahdati, Aioanei, Suresh & Lehmann

  82 approaches across three benchmark generations.

• Preparing for the Intelligence Explosion ↗

  MacAskill & Moorhouse, Forethought

• Why do we need social singularity? ↗

  Petr O. Jedlicka

  The distinction between technological and social singularity.

• Insidious Imaginaries: A Critical Overview of AI Speculations ↗

  xCoAx 2025

• Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI ↗

  Grace, Stewart, Sandkühler, Thomas et al., AI Impacts

  The expert survey; the 69-year framing effect.

• International AI Safety Report ↗

  chaired by Yoshua Bengio

Measurement and forecasting

• Measuring AI Ability to Complete Long Software Tasks ↗

  METR

• Time Horizon 1.1 ↗

  METR · 29 January 2026

  Task pool grown from 170 to 228; 8h+ tasks doubled from 14 to 31.

• Can AI scaling continue through 2030? ↗

  Epoch AI

• What will AI look like in 2030? ↗

  Epoch AI

• AI 2027 ↗

  Kokotajlo, Alexander, Larsen, Lifland, Dean

  The lead author moved his own estimate from ~2027 to ~2030 during 2026.

• When will the first general AI system be devised, tested and publicly announced? ↗

  Metaculus Q5121 · 1,800 forecasters

  Community estimate July 2033 (archive snapshot, 10 Feb 2026).

• Date weakly general AI is publicly known ↗

  Metaculus Q3479 · 1,700 forecasters

  Community estimate 8 February 2028 (archive snapshot, 23 Feb 2026).

• ARC-AGI: Benchmarks for General Intelligence ↗

  ARC Prize / François Chollet

Statements and reference

• Statement on Superintelligence ↗

  Future of Life Institute · 72,621 signatures

• The Coming Technological Singularity (1993) ↗

  Vernor Vinge

  The origin of the term. Vinge's window of 2005 ± 20 years covers exactly the present period.

• Technological singularity ↗

  Wikipedia

• Statement on AI Risk ↗

  Wikipedia